Setting sights on Dh1 trillion real estate transactions in Dubai

Dubai’s real estate market will continue its remarkable performance this year and is on track to achieve a milestone of Dh1 trillion transactions due to strong housing demand especially in the mid-market and affordable segments, experts say.

Leading executives, analysts and property market experts said sales prices in the affordable and mid-market segment should start to moderate thanks to steady residential supply coming online throughout the year. They are of the view that Dubai's status as a global business hub will continue to fuel demand and the real estate developers are expected to deliver more than 40,000 residential units this year.

Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence of the UAE, and Chairman of The Executive Council of Dubai, recently tweeted that Dubai’s real estate sector is a pillar of strength and resilience, playing a vital role in driving the city’s economy.

“With a vision to raise its value to Dh1 trillion by 2033, we are dedicated to advancing this vital sector through innovation and excellence. We look forward to new milestones and initiatives that solidify Dubai’s position as the world’s leading real estate destination,” Sheikh Hamdan said.

Dubai’s property sector achieved an impressive growth last year by recording a 17 per cent year-on-year increase in real estate procedures, which climbed to 2.78 million with transactions alone registered 20 per cent year-on-year growth and valued at Dh761 billion. The sector also attracted investments of over Dh526 billion and welcomed 110,000 new investors, indicating a remarkable growth of 55 per cent.

"The exceptional result of the real estate sector in 2024 reflects the deep strength and resilience of Dubai's economy, which continues to thrive in a rapidly changing global landscape as per the objectives outlined in the Dubai Economic Agenda D33," Sheikh Hamdan said.

Global Business Hub

Milos Antić, Vice-Chairman of DHG International Holding and CEO of DHG Properties Dubai, said Dubai’s property market continues to demonstrate remarkable strength and global appeal this year due to strong housing demand and investor confidence.

“We are optimistic about Dubai’s real estate market and its potential. Building on 2024’s record-breaking performance and the implementation of long-term strategies, we expect continued growth both in 2025 and beyond,” Antić told BTR.

Key government initiatives, such as the Dubai Economic Agenda (D33) and the Real Estate Sector Strategy 2033, will maintain investor confidence. Large-scale infrastructure projects, investor-friendly policies such as the golden visa, and Dubai’s strategic global positioning will further solidify the market’s momentum, driving continued demand and growth.

“Dubai consistently ranks as one of the best cities to live and work in, attracting people from all over of the world. At DHG Properties, our approach, rooted in Swiss excellence, aligns with Dubai’s vision for sustainable and cosmopolitan growth.”

Upward Trend to Continue

Haider Tuaima, Director and Head of Real Estate Research at ValuStrat, said Dubai real estate market will continue its upward trajectory this year. “Supported by ongoing economic growth, rising demand, population expansion, and increasing market maturity, Dubai’s residential market is expected to maintain a positive trajectory in 2025, albeit slower, with capital values projected to rise by 5-10 per cent. Overall, the demand for housing, particularly in the mid-market and affordable segments, will remain strong, bolstered by a growing population and positive sentiment, though at a more measured pace compared to 2024,” Tuaima told BTR.

Prathyusha Gurrapu, Director and Head of Research and Consultancy at Cushman & Wakefield Core, said 2024 was a landmark year for the Dubai real estate market, with record-breaking rents and sales prices. While we’ll still see increases in 2025, these will be more moderate as more supply comes to market.

“Sales prices in the affordable and mid-market segment should start to moderate, with overall prices set to increase by around six to eight per cent in 2025, thanks to steady residential supply coming online throughout the year,” Gurrapu said.

She pins high hopes on new RERA Rental Index and said it will help stabilise the rental increases while also pushing landlords to invest in upgrades.

“New leases to continue steady yet moderate growth of eight to 10 per cent.”

She said 2025 will see a 41 per cent surge in handover volumes with 42,700 units forecast for delivery. “The residential supply in 2025, emerging areas are set to play a prominent role with most upcoming stock concentrated in the sub-urban and outer areas of the city,” she said.

Madhav Dhar, COO and founding member of ZāZEN Properties, said Dubai’s real estate market is poised for continued growth in 2025.

“Industry forecasts suggest a steady annual increase in property prices, ranging between five per cent to seven per cent, driven by sustained demand and a limited supply in prime areas. The previous year witnessed a remarkable 36 per cent surge in transaction volumes, totalling 180,900 deals worth Dh522.1 billion, underscoring the market’s robust performance,” Dhar told BTR.

Looking ahead, he said 2025 is expected to usher in significant innovations within the sector. “Developers are anticipated to focus more on projects that seamlessly blend lifestyle value with long-term investment potential. This includes an emphasis on sustainable and smart home developments, catering to the evolving preferences of buyers and investors alike. Such initiatives not only enhance the living experience but also contribute to the enduring appeal and resilience of Dubai’s real estate market,” he said.

Driving Factors

In 2025, key drivers for the Dubai real estate market will include economic expansion, a growing population, and declining interest rates. Dubai's status as a global business hub will continue to fuel demand, according to Tuaima of ValuStrat.

“With the population growth in 2024 exceeding expectations, housing demand will remain robust, particularly in areas catering to end-users,” he said.

He was of the view that the golden visa will also continue to attract global investors and buyers by offering long-term residency benefits.

Additionally, he said infrastructure expansion, including improvements to the transport network and a resilient tourism sector, will further support demand for both residential and commercial properties.

Antić of DHG International Holding said several factors are expected to continue driving Dubai’s real estate growth in 2025. Government-led initiatives and infrastructure expansion, supported by mega projects and pro-investment policies, will attract further capital to the city.

Additionally, he said the increasing focus on sustainability and ESG compliance, including green building standards and the adoption of renewable energy, aligns with global investor priorities. “Rising consumer confidence and growing retail sales volumes will further support mixed-use developments. Lastly, the golden visa remains a key incentive for international investors, offering long-term residency and reinforcing Dubai’s position as a sought-after investment destination,” he said.

Referring to the Dubai Statistics Centre, Gurrapu of Cushman & Wakefield Core said Dubai welcomed 220,000 new residents in 2024.

“The key drivers attracting people across all nationalities include a thriving job market, tax advantages, safety, global connectivity, retail and food & beverages offerings and a world-class healthcare and education system. Despite rising costs, Dubai’s diverse residential market still caters to various price points and continues to support strong relocation trends,” she said.

“While the golden visa certainly helps facilitate more global investors and buyers, the attractive business environment and living standards are really the biggest drivers for new entrants,” she added.

Shaping Greener Future

Dhar of ZāZEN Properties said there are numerous key drivers expected to boost Dubai’s real estate market in 2025.

“The city’s prime location, robust infrastructure, and favourable tax regimes make it an attractive destination for investors. Furthermore, ongoing government initiatives aimed at increasing market transparency and sustainability are likely to further strengthen investor confidence.

He said the golden visa initiative, which grants long-term residency to entrepreneurs, investors, and skilled professionals, has played a pivotal role in attracting foreign investors.

“Recent policy changes in visa regulations have fuelled a significant real estate boom, with 180,900 transactions recorded in 2024, amounting to Dh522.1 billion — a 36 per cent rise in sales and a 27 per cent increase in deal value compared to the previous year. This upward trend is expected to persist, as the security and long-term benefits of residency make Dubai an increasingly attractive choice for global buyers.”

Adding to this momentum, he said the UAE has introduced the blue visa, a 10-year residency permit for individuals contributing to environmental sustainability. This aligns with Dubai’s push for green development, with ZāZEN Properties leading the way in sustainable real estate. Their eco-friendly communities and energy-efficient projects support the city’s environmental goals, making them an attractive choice for investors.

“As demand for sustainable living grows, the blue visa is expected to draw environmentally conscious buyers, further boosting Dubai’s real estate market. Together, the golden visa, blue visa, and developers like ZāZEN Properties are shaping a greener, investment-friendly future.”

Luxury in Demand

Antić said Dubai’s dynamic market and its appeal to high-net-worth individuals, both locally and internationally, will keep the luxury sector at the forefront. However, sustained development of the real estate market also depends on the expansion of projects catering to middle-income earners. “While the luxury residential segment will remain strong, we anticipate a significant rise in mixed-use developments.”

Elaborating, he said the growing demand for integrated communities that blend residential, commercial, and lifestyle components will be a key growth driver. “Top-tier developments in prime locations that reflect modern living experiences — such as our project Helvetia Residences in JVC or our newly announced project in Meydan — exemplify this rising trend.”

Gurrapu said luxury segment will continue to lead growth in Dubai real estate market this year as high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) and millionaires continue to invest in the market.

“Yes, we’re seeing a huge influx of global wealth coming into Dubai which has translated into the luxury real estate market. The number of transactions for luxury properties has increased year over year, specifically in the ultra-prime segment — transactions with a ticket size of over Dh20 million, where transaction volume rose by 23 per cent in 2024 compared to 2023, continuing a steady upward trend since 2019,” she said.

She said off-plan transactions made up over two-thirds of the market share, while the secondary market accounted for only one-third. This is due to limited inventory in the secondary market, which struggles to keep up with demand, prompting buyers to turn to the off-plan segment. “As global wealth continues to gravitate to Dubai, and demand continues to outstrip supply, the ultra-prime segment will remain in demand. However, the shortage of supply may mean that we see lower transaction volumes,” she added.

Tuaima said Dubai's current property cycle began with the luxury segment driving growth, but the focus has now shifted towards the mid-market and affordable segments, which are expected to see further momentum in 2025.

“Factors such as rising rents and lower borrowing costs are expected to encourage more tenants to pursue homeownership, thereby increasing demand for apartments in these segments. While prime villas will still attract interest, price growth in this segment is expected to slow with potential price stabilisation in the latter half of the year,” he said.

In 2025, Dhar said the ultra-luxury and luxury property segments will continue to hold their leading positions in Dubai’s real estate sector.

“In 2024, there was a significant 35 per cent growth in transactions within this segment compared to the previous year, reinforcing Dubai’s status as a global hub for premium real estate. This growth is expected to accelerate further as international demand, particularly from British HNWIs, continues to surge.”

Recent UK tax regulation changes, including the abolition of non-domiciled tax status and increased capital gains tax, have triggered a wave of British expatriates relocating to Dubai. This shift is driving heightened demand across all property segments, from affordable housing to ultra-luxury estates. A record number of British millionaires are expected to move to Dubai in the coming years, further strengthening the high-end property market. However, it is not just the ultra-luxury segment benefiting from this trend.

“Dubai’s affordable housing market is also witnessing strong growth, fuelled by an increasing number of expatriates, including British professionals and entrepreneurs, looking for permanent residences. This is evident in communities such as Dubai South and Jumeirah Village Circle, where transactions have surged, reflecting a broader expansion of Dubai’s real estate appeal. “With continued investor confidence, rising migration from high-tax regions like the UK, and Dubai’s reputation for offering world-class lifestyle experiences, the luxury and ultra-luxury markets will remain dominant in 2025, while the mid-tier and affordable segments will also experience increased activity.”

Challenges Ahead

Tuaima said Dubai is likely to see some challenges in the year ahead as the market's upward trajectory slows down in the year ahead.

“Larger villas, particularly in prime locations, are likely to experience slower sales price growth, with potential price stabilisation in the latter half of the year. With Dubai's property cycle potentially approaching its peak, investors are advised to track market trends, particularly in high-end villa locations closely,” he said.

Additionally, he said a potential reduction in off-plan property launches could lead to lower transaction volumes, further impacting market dynamics. “External factors, such as global economic uncertainties and regulatory changes, may also influence investor sentiment, adding another layer of complexity to the market. These challenges highlight the need for cautious and strategic investment approaches in the year ahead.”

Gurrapu said inflationary pressures and growing affordability concerns, particularly in the rental market, are resulting in migration to suburban locations and the Northern Emirates while also creating less favourable conditions like traffic congestion. “End-users are being priced out of the market and the off-plan transaction market is becoming increasingly skewed towards investors impacting market dynamics,” she said.

The strong US dollar and high sales prices are expected to impact the purchasing power of traditional foreign investor nationalities, particularly India, Russia, and China, she added.

Antić said the real estate sector faces several challenges despite strong growth prospects. He said affordability and financing shifts may affect first-time buyers, as rising property costs and policy changes impact access to capital. Regulatory adjustments will require market adaptation, but further regulation of the real estate sector is a necessary step toward long-term sustainability.

“Managing new project launches is also crucial to maintaining a balanced supply-demand dynamic and a focus on high-quality developments. Additionally, external economic factors, such as interest rate fluctuations and global market shifts, could influence investment trends,” he said.

Dhar said Dubai’s real estate market is still growing, but it has to navigate economic uncertainty, oil price swings, higher transaction costs, and the challenges that come with rapid construction. He said Dubai’s real estate market is booming, but it’s not without its challenges in 2025.

“Global economic conditions play a big role; if the economy takes a hit, investor confidence and demand for property could slow down. At the same time, the last two years have seen a surge in new project launches, leading to a construction boom. This has created a ripple effect; top contractors are in high demand and often fully booked, making them harder to secure.

“As a result, construction costs are rising and maintaining quality and timely delivery is becoming more difficult. Developers are stepping up by boosting their in-house capabilities, bringing in global contractors, and adopting advanced construction technologies to tackle these issues. But there’s still a pressing need for skilled local labour and strong regulatory frameworks to keep projects on track and maintain quality standards.”

Rising Upfront Cost

Tuaima said the central bank’s decision to prevent banks from financing the four per cent Dubai Land Department (DLD) registration fee and two per cent broker commission as part of mortgages increases upfront costs for buyers.

“While this move encourages responsible lending, it adds financial pressure and may influence purchasing decisions. However, expected interest rate cuts could help offset the impact, making financing more accessible. “Rising rents will likely sustain demand for homeownership. Furthermore, developers are likely to introduce new incentives to alleviate buyers' financial burdens,” he said.

Gurrapu said the central bank’s new directive, requiring a six per cent additional down payment for mortgage buyers, may slow mortgage transactions and affect buyer decisions, potentially driving some towards off-plan properties with appealing payment plans while also pricing some segments out of the market. “The overall impact on Dubai’s residential market will be limited, as cash transactions dominate the market and demand remains strong,” she said.

Antić said this policy change may initially impact affordability for some buyers and investors, but the market is expected to adjust this cost in due course of time.

“Developers are likely to introduce flexible payment plans, incentives, or alternative financing options to support buyers. In the long term, this move enhances market transparency and financial discipline, ensuring a more sustainable investment environment and reinforcing Dubai’s position as a mature, well-regulated real estate market,” he said.

Dhar said the recent directive from the Central Bank of the UAE, effective in February, mandates that banks exclude DLD registration fees and broker fees from mortgage financing. This move is aimed at promoting responsible lending practices. However, it necessitates that buyers prepare for higher upfront costs, as these fees can no longer be rolled into their mortgage loans.

“For buyers and investors, this means a need for a more substantial initial capital outlay when purchasing property. It’s crucial to factor in these additional costs during financial planning to avoid unexpected financial strain. While this policy promotes financial prudence, it may also lead to a short-term cooling effect on the market as buyers adjust to the new requirements,” he said.

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